Methanol spot prices in China have risen sharply over the past week, driven by geopolitical factors, declining import volumes, and recovering downstream demand. East China port prices climbed 9.15% from March 6 to March 13, reaching approximately 2,832 RMB/ton. Overseas buyers should monitor supply tightness and potential further price increases as inventory destocking continues, albeit at a slower pace than expected.
Price trends
According to SunSirs commodity market analysis system, from March 6 to March 13 (as of 15:00), methanol quoted prices in East China ports rose from 2,595 RMB/ton to approximately 2,832 RMB/ton. During this period, prices increased by 9.15%, representing a monthly increase of 28.65% and a year-on-year increase of 7.77%. Domestic methanol market trading remained primarily driven by geopolitical factors, with growing sentiment in the futures market gradually spilling over to the spot market.
Reinforced by a confluence of positive factors, including continuous inventory reduction by enterprises, localized essential demand for external olefin procurement, and gradual recovery of downstream demand, methanol prices experienced a significant increase.
Futures market performance
At the close of trading on March 13, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange settled higher. The most active methanol futures contract, 2605, opened at 2,754 RMB/ton, reached a high of 2,887 RMB/ton, and a low of 2,723 RMB/ton, before closing at 2,805 RMB/ton. This represents an increase of 32 points or 1.15% compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. Trading volume stood at 2,171,545 lots, open interest totaled 584,205 lots, and daily open interest increased by 13,631 lots.
Regional price summary as of March 13
- Shanxi region: 2,240 - 2,380 RMB/ton (factory cash withdrawal) - Anhui region: 2,500 RMB/ton - Henan region: 2,435 - 2,450 RMB/ton (factory cash withdrawal)
Supply and demand dynamics
On the cost side, downstream coal enterprises gradually resumed work and production, leading to increased demand expectations, with market prices remaining predominantly stable. The overall impact from the cost perspective is mixed, presenting both positive and negative aspects.
On the demand side, prices of various downstream products rose in tandem, driven by the strong increase in methanol raw material costs. Profitability was temporarily quite robust, with MTBE, glacial acetic acid, and chloromethane sectors showing the most significant profit growth. Since the price of most downstream products is directly influenced by methanol costs, the demand side is providing favorable market factors.
On the supply side, maintenance at Yanchang Zhongmei facilities was extended, while operations at Guangju New Materials and Inner Mongolia Heimao resumed. As the volume of lost production exceeded the volume of recovered production, overall output declined and capacity utilization rates fell. In the short term, the number of methanol facilities scheduled to resume operations is increasing, while the number of facilities undergoing maintenance or production cuts is decreasing; consequently, overall market supply is expected to increase. The supply side of methanol provided bearish factors for the market.
International market signals
At the close of trading on March 12, the Southeast Asian CFR methanol market settled at $494 - 496/ton, an increase of $39.5/ton. The US Gulf FOB methanol market closed at 106 - 108 cents/gallon, up 2 cents/gallon; meanwhile, the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market settled at €380 - 382/ton, an increase of €13/ton.
What buyers should watch
Import volumes are expected to decline in the short term, and upstream inventory destocking is underway, though the overall pace remains weaker than anticipated. SunSirs analysts forecast that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly show a consolidating upward trend. Overseas buyers should monitor supply tightness in China and potential further price increases, while also watching international price movements in Southeast Asia, the US, and Europe for broader market signals.
Source: Read the original report | Published: March 16, 2026