The US-Iran war has paralyzed the Strait of Hormuz, causing global fertilizer prices to surge and threatening severe shortages across Southeast Asia, a region heavily reliant on imports through this critical chokepoint. Experts warn the current disruption is more severe than the supply shocks seen during the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, directly impacting urea availability and costs for overseas buyers.
Crisis at the Strait of Hormuz
According to Nikkei Asia, citing data from research firm Kpler, Iran's effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has left over 20 vessels carrying nearly 1 million metric tons of fertilizer stranded in the Persian Gulf. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) notes that the Persian Gulf region accounts for approximately 30% to 35% of global urea exports, making this a critical supply artery.
Urea Price Surge
Urea, a key nitrogen source alongside phosphorus and potassium in fertilizers, has seen its price skyrocket 83% since the start of the year, according to Fertilizerworks.com. Following the US and Israeli attack on Iran on February 28, urea prices jumped 50% to $717.74 per metric ton, compounding cost pressures for importers and formulators worldwide.
Uneven Impact Across Southeast Asia
Experts and industry executives highlight that the impact varies by country. Indonesia and Malaysia, which have domestic fertilizer production capabilities, are relatively less affected. In contrast, nations like Thailand are more vulnerable due to their heavy reliance on imported fertilizers, raising concerns about agricultural output and food security in the region.
Expert Warning on Supply Risks
Laura Cross, Market Intelligence Director at the International Fertilizer Association (IFA), told Nikkei Asia: "Even the disruption of supplies from Russia and Belarus at the beginning of the Ukraine war in 2022 cannot be compared to the current situation." She added, "We have already seen the price impact, but these markets may not yet have experienced full shortages. If the situation persists, that is where the risk lies."
What Buyers Should Watch
Overseas fertilizer buyers should monitor the evolving blockade situation in the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on urea and other nutrient supplies. With prices already elevated and stranded cargoes unresolved, securing alternative sourcing from regions like North America or the Middle East outside the conflict zone may become critical. Additionally, logistics costs and lead times for fertilizer shipments are likely to remain volatile.
Source: Read the original report | Published: March 31, 2026